NUREMBERG, Germany -- Here's a tip: Bet on the first goal in the England vs. Sweden match to be an own goal from an English player.
Reckon it's a long shot? Well, not if Ecuador holds Germany to a draw in the earlier match on Tuesday. That will mean the South Americans go through as the top team of Group A on goal difference, meaning runnerup Germany will play the top team of Group B in the second round.
England has six points from two games in Group B after beating Paraguay 1-0 and Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 while Sweden has four points, and both teams won't be keen on meeting the hosts so early in the competition. Finishing top also would mean ending up in the Brazil side of the draw.
More than enough incentive to go for the loss for England, although it will be difficult to pull off. The Swedes are holding all the cards and it can be fair to say they won't exactly be overdoing it in the effort department if Ecuador finishes top.
But the Swedes still need a draw to make sure of qualification because if they lose and Trinidad and Tobago wins, both will be on four points and it will be down to goal difference to see which team goes through.
If England loses to Sweden, though, then both go through but with England second.
Confused? You're not the only one.
Obviously professionalism comes into it and Sweden coach Lars Lagerback and England's Sven-Goran Eriksson will be insisting that they will be playing as normal, but some readers may harken back to 1982 and the rigged game between West Germany and Austria that ended with a 1-0 victory to the Germans that ensured qualification for both at the expense of Algeria.
This could be even worse! That's why it would be an idea to get to the bookies and put some money on an England own-goal-fest.
Who knows? Considering Michael Owen's current form it might be the only chance he gets to score a goal at the World Cup.