Michael Jordan is "99.9 percent sure" he won't return to the NBA. I can do one-tenth better: I'm 100 percent.

I feel like the Grinch for saying this -- after all, everyone and their aunt Ethel are praying for a comeback -- but it's not going to happen. Don't get me wrong; my aunt Ethel and I would love to see a comeback too. Unfortunately, all signs point to NOT A CHANCE! You're not sold, are you? You want proof, don't you? Well, you've come to the right place. Here are 10 reasons why you'll never see the Third Coming of MJ:

1. That's a fact, Jack(son) -- Jordan has never backed off a 1998 statement that Phil Jackson is the only coach he'd play for. Only one problem, Jackson is currently running the Lakers. Unless the Zen master slithers out of his multi-million-dollar deal and follows Jordan to another team (don't bet the ranch), MJ would have to play in L.A. That sounds good at first, but it's a recipe for disaster. There's simply no room on the Lakers for another superstar. Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant are already bickering like toddlers over who gets to take the final shot. MJ's arrival would turn the Lakers into the Blazers: a team so talented it lacks chemistry.

2. Beware of owner -- For argument's sake, let's assume MJ would be willing to play for a club not coached by Jackson. A competitive but youthful team seems like a perfect fit. The Kings (if they manage to keep Chris Webber) and Mavericks come to mind. Per league rules, Mike would have to sell his minority stake in the Washington Wizards before coming back. But the fallout -- at least in D.C. -- would be ugly. Jordan, who has side-stepped bad press most of his career, would be labeled a traitor for abandoning ship. As Magic Johnson and Mario Lemieux know, the move from part-owner to player is a breeze when it involves the same team. From a public relations standpoint, MJ has only one real option.

3. Honest Abe -- Wizards majority owner Abe Pollin has a "gut feeling" Jordan will be playing in the nation's capital next season. Well, Pollin had a "gut feeling" the Wizards would be good this season and they're currently 37 games out of first place. This guy's turning into a real pain in the stomach. Even with Jordan, the Wizards are a .500 team at best. And that's precisely the point: MJ would never want to play on a mediocre team; he's too competitive. He spent his early years turning the dead-as-a-doormat Bulls into champions. Why go back in time?

4. We are family -- As the Wizards' president of basketball operations, Jordan runs the club by telephone from his Chicago home so he can be close to his family. He even gets up early and drives his kids to school. While many of his former peers were gearing up for a lengthy postseason a few weeks ago, MJ was on a tropical island with his family. Jordan gained a deep appreciation for family after his father was murdered in 1993. One of the main reasons he retired the first time around was to be near his loved ones. Now he's in a place he's always wanted to be. I'm no psychologist, but this doesn't sound like a man desperate for change.

5. Rule it out -- The NBA is changing some rules next season to boost scoring. But, as many coaches and players fear, the changes will actually have an opposite effect. The illegal defense rule has been trashed and more hand-checking will be allowed. Games will be slower and more congested than ever. The free-flowing league Jordan revolutionized no longer exists. No doubt he'd feel stifled in this new environment.

6. Been there, done that -- MJ has already retired once and then come back. I think he's gotten the I-can-still-play-the-game itch out of his system. Some mind-readers are claiming he wants to prove himself all over again. Well, that's about as believable as Wilt Chamberlain's claim of sleeping with 20,000 women. Jordan may miss the game -- what retired athlete doesn't? -- but I'm sure he's content with his warehouse full of accomplishments. I don't consider Latrell Sprewell much of an authority on anything off the court, but I do agree with the Knicks guard on this topic. "I still don't know why he would come back," Spree said recently. "I mean, what does he have to prove? He's already the greatest player ever to play the game. What's to gain?" Amen.

7. Beauty before age -- I wouldn't dare say the 38-year-old Jordan is too old to dominate. He has more big-game experience than anyone around and he's already near game shape. But it will be tough. MJ would be up against guys who were in the womb when he first joined the Bulls. Some of these whippersnappers are now saying No. 23 would be a marked man if he comes back. Air Jordan always reinvented his game to stay way ahead of the competition. He perfected a fadeaway jumper and played less inside the paint after turning 30. But this time the playing field would be more level and Jordan would have to work harder than ever just to maintain a slight edge. Don't think he doesn't know it.

8. Unfinished business -- The talking heads on ESPN have been gabbing about how MJ simply needs a challenge in his life. Other than running the Bulls and possibly the Warriors, the Wizards job is the most challenging in the business. The team will have a top pick in this summer's draft and Jordan's input will be crucial. His decision could determine the Wizards' future over the next decade. MJ probably loves the fact that he's back in the spotlight. Lord knows, the Wizards have done little this season to put him there. But that will change with time. Jordan has never backed away from a challenge just because it didn't pay immediate dividends. He won't start doing so now.

9. Be like Mario -- Conventional wisdom these days holds that Lemieux's success is making Jordan jealous. Well, it's just too early to tell. MJ always maintained that the regular season meant nothing to him; the playoffs are what counted most. Lemieux has had tremendous success so far, but the Penguins stumbled in their first playoff game against the Capitals. If they fold early, a certain someone will be shouting "Thank God that's not me!"

10. The shot -- Game 6 of the 1998 NBA Finals played out like a fairy tale. Our hero steals the ball and then nails a 16-footer in the final seconds to give his team its sixth title in eight years. Steven Spielberg, eat your heart out! There's only a 00.1 percent chance Jordan could top that feat. It was the perfect way to say goodbye and he knows it. So don't hold your breath for a sequel. It's not coming to a theater near you.