Over the last year, the trajectory of Sino-American relations has become indisputable: The United States and China are headed toward a substantial, though not complete, decoupling.
Far from resisting this outcome, both sides now seem to have accepted that this will play out as a largely noncooperative game, to the point that they are embedding it in their policy frameworks. But what exactly will decoupling entail and what will its consequences be?
On the American side, national-security concerns have led to the creation of a lengthy — and still growing — list of restrictions on technology exports to and investments in China, as well as on other channels whereby technology moves around the world. To enhance the strategy’s impact, the U.S. is trying to make sure — including through the threat of sanctions — that other countries join its efforts.