Ukraine will enter 2023 with wind in its sails.
Against all odds, it repelled Russia’s initial attempt to take Kyiv, then recaptured extensive territory around Kharkiv and Kherson and inflicted heavy losses on the invading forces. Speaking just after Politico named him the most powerful person in Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sounded an optimistic note for the winter, predicting that Ukrainians would be enjoying “peacetime” by next year.
Yet, as former Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski has pointed out, it is hard to imagine a compromise that would allow for peace. If Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to remain “nonaligned,” he will have to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, effectively admitting defeat. But that would be a nonstarter for him. Similarly, Zelenskyy is unlikely to consider conceding any Ukrainian territory unless Ukraine is also offered NATO membership. With these scenarios remaining unlikely, there is every reason to anticipate a protracted conflict.