I expected to discuss all sorts of things with political scientists in Chicago just recently, but I’ll be honest: When it came to current politics, people were mostly talking about the 2024 presidential nominations — especially the Republican one.

And folks I spoke with were split right down the middle: About half thought that former President Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee, and half threw up their hands and said they had no idea what would happen.

I’m in that second group.The argument that Trump has the nomination locked up is pretty straightforward. No, we don’t know for sure that he’ll be running in 2024, but he certainly is running for 2024 right now. That is, he’s doing all the things that candidates for president do — holding rallies, campaigning, raising money and, in his own fashion, putting together a policy platform. Sure, the platform begins and ends with complaining that people are unfair to Donald Trump, but that’s pretty much all he did as president anyway.