As the Ukraine crisis unfolds, the world is asking if the West misread Vladimir Putin.
The far more pertinent question is how well such countries read themselves. Putin hasn’t just bet that he could invade a neighboring country; he is betting that he can outlast the coalition that seeks to turn him back. Much is riding on that assessment of Western determination or weakness since his view his shared by other governments, too.
The West hoped to deter Putin from invading. It failed. Now the question is whether the countries aligned against him can impose sufficient pain on him and his country to force a retreat. They are testing his "resolve," a word that will be heard a lot in days and weeks to come. But, and this is the key point, he is testing their resolve as well. Putin believes that his adversaries are soft, unable to muster the commitment and determination to prevail in the struggle that is underway. The key question isn’t how much pain they can impose on Russia, but how much pain they will endure.
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