As Election Day nears, the possibility of a disputed presidential election is worrying a lot of people. You’ve heard the scenarios: An embittered Donald Trump loses but refuses to leave the Oval Office. An embittered Joe Biden loses but refuses to concede. Absentee ballots that arrive after Nov. 3 aren’t counted. Or they are counted. The angry left takes to the streets. The angry right takes to the streets. Lawyers take to the courts.
Whatever goes wrong — and chances are something will — we will likely be having an argument over the vote count.
Into the pre-election turmoil comes a useful new analysis from the economists Michael Geruso and Dean Spears of the University of Texas, who study and model presidential elections. Last September, I wrote about an earlier paper in which they argued that inversions — where one party wins the popular vote and the other the electoral college — are far more likely than we think.
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