COVID-19 has been simultaneously good and bad for humanity’s struggle to limit global warming. So far, it’s hard to say what the net balance will be. But the European Union could tilt it positive, if it so chooses.
On the good side of the ledger, global emissions of greenhouse gases plummeted during the lockdowns. On the bad side, they’re already heading back up to pre-corona levels. This year’s dip will make us no more likely to achieve our goals for slowing climate change.
The recent drop in demand for energy also had perverse side-effects. The price of oil plummeted, making this fossil fuel more attractive in the recovery compared to greener alternatives. Even the damper on air travel hasn’t been unequivocally good for the climate. As airlines bought fewer emission allowances in the EU’s cap-and-trade system, the price of these certificates dropped. This made carbon pollution cheaper in other sectors of the economy, such as cement production.