In combating COVID-19-19, the United States stumbled into a "natural experiment” whose national negative outcomes have outweighed the positive ones, including greater loss of life and more cases of debilitating illness, not to mention a setback to economic recovery. Now it faces a second natural experiment whose outcome is also likely to be disappointing unless we are willing to learn more from the first one.
By largely ceding decision-making to the states, the U.S. ended up with a much different approach than the vast majority of other countries in emerging from the severe economic coronavirus lockdowns. While individual results vary, there is overwhelming evidence that the majority of states that reopened early are now saddled with both health and economic crises with no quick way to resolve both at the same time.
States such as Florida and Texas are reporting record infections and hospitalizations. Deaths have climbed. And an inadequate supply of tests and lag time in producing results are undermining the authorities’ ability to avoid worsening public health conditions, even in states that have grasped the gravity of the situation. The consequence is that the economic recovery will inevitably slow, not only because of the rollback of reopenings but also because of a likely loss of confidence among households and businesses, which will most likely taper their enthusiasm to re-engage once states reopen again.