There has been plenty of talk about how the coronavirus might affect politics in China, for example by eroding trust between the Chinese public and its leadership. In the United States, however, the coronavirus is likely to have the opposite effect: Namely, to make the incumbent more popular and to increase the reelection chances of President Donald Trump.
How the coronavirus will develop is not yet apparent, but the public health and economic risks are significant, and thus it stands a good chance of being a front-page story for several months. Even if the coronavirus does not lead to many deaths in the U.S., that risk will continue for some time, and various quarantines and travel bans will continue to be in the news and on social media.
The first and perhaps most important effect will be to make Trump's nationalism seem ordinary, even understated. Hundreds of flights to China have already been canceled, countries are refusing to receive (or deciding to quarantine) Chinese nationals or visitors from China, and China itself is severely limiting travel in the country. Whether or not these prove effective measures, the idea of travel bans and restrictions no longer seems extreme or unconstitutional. Even if voters are confusing normal times with times of pandemic, on this issue Trump's instincts now seem almost prescient.
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