For more than a decade, China has accounted for a quarter or more of global economic growth. With its economy currently navigating a rough patch, the question is whether this impressive performance will persist.
Cassandras pointing to the possibility of a Chinese growth slowdown regularly invoke the specter of a middle-income trap. Now that China is no longer poor, they warn, growth rates will fall, just as they have in all but a handful countries that have reached the same income level.
Growth is harder, they observe, when it can no longer be based on brute-force capital accumulation. Now, it must be based on innovation, which is difficult to bring about in an economy that is still centrally directed.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.