Taiwan's reclamation has been a cornerstone of Beijing's mission for "national rejuvenation" since the Chinese Communist Party successfully assumed power over mainland China in 1949. President Xi Jinping reiterated the point in his National Day Address on Oct. 1.
Due to both Taiwan's highly developed military defense and preparedness, many analysts have indicated that successful reunification by the People's Liberation Army in an invasion is far less certain than is often assumed — even without U.S. intervention to defend Taiwan. Yet while commentators have analyzed the likelihood of forced reunification, few have written about one consequence of such an attempted reunification: a Taiwanese refugee crisis.
In the event of an invasion, as soon as the PLA moves and Taiwan's government declares a state of emergency, Taiwanese citizens with financial resources will begin to flee the island. Recent polls illustrate that 65.4 percent of Taiwanese citizens do not believe Taiwan can repel a Chinese invasion, despite evidence to the contrary. Arguably many will write off Taiwan's military capabilities and flee immediately; others, even in the event of a PLA failure, would depart in the ensuing weeks to avoid further danger.
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