July should have been a very good month for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He presided over a successful World Cup soccer tournament and held a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump that could only be called a triumph for Putin. And yet the Russian president's popularity is falling, the result of domestic policies and an economy that will worsen over the long term. Putin's strongman persona can only take him so far as his domestic foundation weakens.

Putin's approval ratings should be surging. The 2018 World Cup was a staggering success with games going off without a hitch and Russia's team turning in a surprisingly strong performance. Fears of an international boycott proved groundless and visitors contributed an estimated $1.5 billion to the economy, a much-needed boost.

Hours after the tournament concluded, Putin met Trump for a long-delayed summit in Helsinki on July 16. The impact of the encounter continues to be felt, but by most measures it was another win for Putin. It followed a NATO summit at which Trump's commitment to the alliance was questioned. By all appearances, Putin dominated Trump at their meeting, arriving late, and then being calm, confident and controlled at the subsequent news conference. Trump appeared to reject his own intelligence agencies and backed Putin's claim that Moscow did not meddle in U.S. elections. Putin's concern now is that he was too domineering, which risks a backlash against Russia in Washington.