A few years ago — probably four or five — I had an unexpected and terrifying thought: We could have World War III. Until then, I had blissfully believed, along with (I suspect) billions of others, that a nuclear holocaust — the shape of World War III — had been rendered obsolete by MAD ("mutually assured destruction") and political and military safeguards to prevent accidental attacks.
Suddenly, these complacent assumptions seemed naive. The anti-proliferation framework was breaking down. More countries (Iran, North Korea and possibly Saudi Arabia, Egypt and who knows who else) might seek nuclear weapons. The opportunities for miscalculation, theft or terrorism would multiply. The inconceivable now seemed plausible.
I cite this personal experience because it captures the spirit of our time, which is fearful and pessimistic. Many will blame U.S. President Donald Trump. This is misleading. He is a consequence more than a cause. Even without him, we would face growing economic uncertainty and political disorder. But now there is a backlash: The optimists are counterattacking. Good.
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