The expansion of Japan's gross domestic product for the fourth quarter in a row hardly seems encouraging. The slow growth of the economy has been losing speed for three consecutive quarters amid a pattern of weak domestic demand, in particular consumer spending, offset by brisk exports. As uncertainties hang over offshore demand, the Abe administration should focus more on policy steps to boost growth driven by personal consumption, and businesses making profits are urged to contribute through significant pay hikes for their workers in ongoing annual wage negotiations.
The annualized 1.0 percent growth in the October-December period over the previous quarter belies the stagnant domestic demand. Consumer spending, which accounts for 60 percent of GDP, fell 0.01 percent for the first decline in a year, though a 0.9 percent pickup in capital investments offset the fall to leave domestic demand nearly flat. Growth has been slowing, falling from 2.3 percent in the first quarter to 1.8 percent in the second and 1.4 percent in the third.
Growth in the last quarter was driven by a 2.6 percent increase in exports, attributed to brisk semiconductor shipment to China and auto sales in the United States, but it's unclear whether the upward trend will be sustained in the coming months. While the slowdown in China's economy remains a major source of concern for global demand, the protectionist trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump adds to the unpredictability of export-driven growth. Vehicle exports to the U.S. could come up during the bilateral economic dialogue that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed to create in his recent talks with Trump.
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