At his first official news briefing Monday, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer told reporters that the United States would protect its interests in the South China Sea and "defend international territories from being taken over by one country." The remarks were in response to a question about earlier statements made by Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson at his confirmation hearing that the U.S. would not allow China access to its artificial islands in the South China Sea.
Spicer's comments leave the question of how, or whether, the U.S. will respond to China in the Spratly Islands going forward ambiguous and somewhat confused. Nonetheless, anticipation that the Trump administration's policies in the South China Sea might significantly raise tensions with China has both U.S. and Chinese observers speculating about the prospect of a military clash.
In considering arguments about the heightened risk of conflict today, it's worth revisiting some history. Issues that seem like unique flashpoints today have actually simmered for decades but rarely escalated. However, careless policies could push the U.S. and China into a confrontation that otherwise might just keep simmering.