The coming visit to Japan by Russian President Vladimir Putin is already following a familiar pattern. Well before the Russian (or Soviet) leader arrives we are told how Tokyo will resolutely press its claim for the return of the so-called Northern Territories — islands at the southern end of the Kuril chain seized by Soviet troops in 1945. Often there is an assumption that Moscow will agree because it is supposed to be desperate for money, development, friends or something.
Sometimes we are told that even the mere fact of the visit proves Moscow wants to make a concession — that the visit is a "love call" as one excited commentator once put it. Each time the wording of the final communique is tooth-combed to find some proof of a concession. But each time the message from Moscow is "nyet."
This time it is supposed to be different. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes he has a good personal relationship with Putin. This year is the 60th anniversary of the 1956 breakthrough in Tokyo-Moscow relations, when Russia promised to return the smaller two of the disputed islands — Shikotan and the Habomais — once a peace treaty to end the hostilities of World War II was signed.
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