Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's priorities in his economic policies are clear and consistent — no fiscal rehabilitation without economic revival. In prioritizing economic growth and busting deflation over fiscal reconstruction, Abe has twice postponed the consumption tax hike to 10 percent through October 2019 but remains confident of achieving the government's goal of eliminating the primary balance deficit by fiscal 2020.
The problem is, his own government's estimate shows that Japan, even after growing at a robust pace never seen in the past two decades and finally raising the consumption tax in 2019, would still be short of the deficit target by ¥5.5 trillion. Under a scenario of slower growth that's closer to the nation's growth potential, the deficit of national and local governments combined would top ¥9 trillion, according to the latest Cabinet Office estimate.
With the nation's fiscal health already the worst among major industrialized economies — and public debt at roughly double gross domestic product, the internationally proclaimed goal of a primary balance surplus by 2020 — which means the government will be able to finance its annual budget (excluding debt-servicing costs) without incurring new debt — will be of crucial importance for the credibility of Japan's commitment to putting its fiscal house in order. Instead of just selling rosy high-growth scenarios, the Abe administration should present a concrete and credible road map for fiscal rehabilitation, which might entail politically tough cuts to expenditures, including some social welfare benefits, as well as increases in the public burden in terms of tax and social security premiums.
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