It has been a very good summer for Russian President Vladimir Putin, at least as far as foreign policy is concerned. His own efforts in a variety of endeavors have paid dividends and unrelated developments have benefited Russia and Putin's agenda. Putin is exploiting those gains — along with a reputation for subtle maneuvering and bold assertiveness — to claim additional advantages. It is not clear if Putin understands the limits of Russian power or Western patience. A miscalculation of either could prove disastrous.

One of the most important developments is the rapprochement with Turkey that followed a year of tense ties. In November 2015, a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian bomber that flew into Turkish airspace while bombing rebels in support of the Syrian government. Russia retaliated by suspending its tourist trade with Turkey, a blow to a Turkish economy already battered by terrorism and growing uncertainty about the nation's political future. In June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a letter to Putin purportedly apologizing for the shoot down and relations have been rebounding ever since. The reconciliation process culminated in an Aug. 9 meeting between the two presidents, the first in over a year.

This improvement occurs as Turkey's relations with the West deteriorate, mostly as a result of Erdogan's consolidation of power and an authoritarianism that could threaten Turkey's democracy. Turkey has long been a target of Russia's diplomacy as a result of its location straddling the Bosphorus, and the access it provides to the Mediterranean Sea. Its position between Europe and the Middle East has elevated Turkey's importance to Europe and NATO. By most geopolitical calculations, the West's loss is Russia's gain.