If anyone feels Janet Yellen's pain these days, it's Toshihiko Fukui, the Japanese central banker who 10 years ago also tried — and failed — to normalize monetary policy.
Funny how people debate whether the U.S. risks becoming Japan — it's already there, at least in terms of monetary dynamics. Fed Chairwoman Yellen may not know it yet, but officials in Washington are retracing Fukui's 2006 steps with eerie precision and reminding us that zero interest rates can have more in common with quicksand than economic stimulus.
In March 2006, the Bank of Japan concluded the world's first QE experiment with great fanfare. The sound of popping champagne corks filled the Nihonbashi neighborhood surrounding BOJ headquarters. Four months later, Fukui's team celebrated the first rate hike in over a decade. They even pulled off a second by February 2007, lifting benchmark rates to 0.50 percent. It's a feat the Fed hopes to match.
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