Gambia re-established diplomatic ties with China in mid-March. In real terms, that is no big deal: Gambia carries little weight in the world. Symbolically, however, it matters. The shift is a shot across the bow of the incoming administration in Taiwan, and a warning that Beijing's tolerance for departures from the current Taipei government's foreign and cross-strait policies is low. Asia and the rest of the world have been beneficiaries of a truce between the two governments on either side of the Taiwan Strait. We must prepare for a downturn and a return to skirmishing.

Gambia is the smallest country in continental Africa — with a population of about 2 million and GDP of less than $1 billion. Upon gaining independence in 1965, it commenced diplomatic relations with Taiwan, then switched to Beijing when Beijing assumed Taipei's seat at the United Nations in 1971. It returned to the Taiwan camp in 1995 but severed ties with Taipei in 2013, reportedly because Taiwan refused to increase foreign assistance to the country.

China did not seize the opportunity to add another country to its diplomatic roster, however. This forbearance was part of the diplomatic truce that was reached between Beijing and Taipei, part of a larger effort to reduce tension between the two governments. The freezing of the diplomatic status quo reflected Beijing's calculation that Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeau was a leader it could do business with and that it should not act in ways that undermined his standing in the world and among the Taiwanese. In short, they bet that if Ma could be seen as preserving Taiwan's international status, he would win domestic support for his cross-strait policy of closer ties with the mainland and eventual reconciliation.