Economic reforms are much like New Year's diet resolutions: easily announced and easily forgotten. So perhaps it shouldn't be surprising that the pronouncements that have emerged from China's National People's Congress — pledges to slash overcapacity, open up the financial system, accept lower growth — echo unfulfilled promises from previous party gatherings.
Still, China prides itself on being different. The country can seemingly create new industries overnight, and has waged an anti-corruption campaign that reportedly punished 300,000 officials in 2015. Why does a state that holds so much power have so much trouble following through on its reform pledges?
Part of the answer is perception. Observers tend to hear more than is intended in China's declarations. This year, for instance, many pundits have welcomed the shift from a hard GDP growth target to a supposedly more realistic range — between 6.5 percent and 7 percent. The real growth rate is almost certainly lower than that already, however. The numbers themselves tell us little: Since 2010, the government has missed its target by only 0.16 percent on average every quarter. We should expect similarly unbelievable consistency this year, regardless of what's happening in the economy.
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