As Russia's bombing campaign in Syria drags on, a number of commentators have suggested that President Vladimir Putin's bold move could drag Russia into an Afghan-style quagmire. This negative outcome is far from guaranteed, however, and Putin holds more cards than his critics realize. Russia may well achieve its core military objectives in Syria — while the United States cannot.
Here's how Putin might achieve his ideal outcome in Syria.
To start, a key strength of Russia's Syrian military strategy is its simplicity. Today the Russian bombing campaign seeks only to stabilize the Syrian regime's lines around the key corridor running north from Damascus through Homs and Hama. This approach provides breathing space for Assad, and allows his regime to implement its long-mooted Plan B — a rump state centered on the Alawite heartland along the Mediterranean coast. While it's unclear whether the Assad regime can re-conquer large portions of Syria, the rebels are now on the defensive and the regime has stopped losing crucial pieces of territory.
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