We have all manner of policy proposals from the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, but there's a sobering disconnect between what they're advocating and the large problems the country actually faces. The candidates seem caught in a time warp. Democrats plug new entitlements (college subsidies, paid family leave). Republicans embrace tax cuts. All this is familiar; it's also a flight from reality.
Whoever wins next November will inherit three major domestic problems that, though obvious, are downplayed because the politics are so unfavorable. Together, these three realities will go a long way toward defining 21st-century America.
First, we are an aging society. "The number of people aged 65 or older is expected to increase by 76 percent between now and 2040," says the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Inevitably, the costs of Social Security, Medicare and nursing home care under Medicaid will grow dramatically. From 1965 to 2014, spending on Social Security and the major federal health care programs averaged 6.5 percent of the economy. By 2040, CBO projects this spending to exceed 14 percent of GDP.
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