The administration of Park Geun-hye took office in 2013 with the diplomatic objective of taking U.S. and China relations to a higher level. While the South Korea-U.S. security relationship spanning over half a century continues to play its role in facilitating stability and deterrence on the Korean Peninsula against the threat from the North, China's geopolitical significance, huge economic market, and particularly its perceived influence over the Kim Dynasty has made it a top diplomatic partner and priority for South Korea. For Park, this is a key stepping stone toward the national objective of ultimate Korean unification, ending the legacy of Cold War confrontation and establishing lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula.
In fact, China is seen as holding the key to solving the North Korean problem. This is a belief widely shared in the West. And that in turn leads to the assumptions that U.S.-China relations, South Korea-China relations and China's fear of North Korean collapse are the key variables in China's North Korea policy.
These assumptions are not without evidence. First, the U.S. and China are the two most important actors in the material distribution of power, with the ability to shape the international system and coerce the weak. Second, enhanced South Korea-China relations can encourage China to become an impartial player in its two-Korea policy, and perhaps one day even favor the South. Third, a North Korea collapse and the subsequent flow of refugees could pose a grave danger to China's domestic security, as well as the slight possibility of forward U.S. troop deployment to its borders. The first two represent change, while the third points to continuity in China's North Korea policy.
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