I just finished reading Adam Tooze's "The Deluge," a history of how U.S. economic power changed the course of history during the world wars. It's almost impossible for people today to realize what a big shift this was — to much of the world's population, the United States has always been the Big Country, the driver of markets, innovation and geopolitical stability.
Right now, U.S. hegemony is waning. With only a quarter the population of China, there is essentially no chance that the U.S. can continue to reign supreme in the economic sphere unless China suffers a stunning collapse. But in the longer run, what shifts can we expect in the balance of economic power? Expect the U.S. to make a comeback, since its openness to immigration allows the country's population to keep growing even after fertility levels out. India's huge population, of course, will make it a great economic power as well.
But during the next couple of centuries, there is another country that I think has a surprisingly good chance of becoming an economic and cultural superpower. That country is Canada.
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