"If the United States' bottom line is that China has to halt its activities, then a U.S.-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea," said an editorial in the Global Times last week. The Global Times is an English-language daily paper specializing in international affairs that is published by the People's Daily, the Chinese government's official newspaper. So we should presumably take what it says seriously.
But really, a U.S.-Chinese war in the South China Sea? Over a bunch of reefs that barely clear the water at high tide, and some fishing rights and mineral rights that might belong to China if it can bully, persuade, or bribe the other claimants into renouncing their claims? The GDP of the U.S. is $16.8 trillion each year, and China's GDP is $9.2 trillion. All the resources of the South China Sea would not amount to $1 trillion over 50 years.
Great powers end up fighting great wars. Counting a pre-war arms race, the losses during the war (even assuming it doesn't go nuclear), and a resumed arms race after the war, the long-term cost of a U.S.-Chinese war over the South China Sea could easily be $5 trillion. Are you sure this is a good idea?
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