China's economy is, at long last, undergoing a rebalancing, with growth rates having declined from more than 10 percent before 2008 to roughly 7.5 percent today. Is this China's "new normal," or should the country anticipate even slower growth in the coming decade?
China's rebalancing is apparent, first and foremost, in the export sector. Export growth has slowed from its 2001-2008 average of 29 percent annually to below 10 percent, making foreign demand a far less critical engine of growth.
Moreover, manufacturing employment and output, as a share of the total, began to decline last year. In fact, in the first half of this year, services accounted for more than half of total economic growth. It is no surprise, then, that China's current-account surplus has shrunk rapidly, from its 2007 peak of more than 10 percent of gross domestic product to about 2 percent of GDP today.
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