As Europe and Russia head into another round of sanctions, economic data are driving home an important point: Nobody stands to win in this tit-for-tat battle.
The International Energy Agency's September Oil Market Report offered bad news for Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling a recent slowdown in oil demand growth "nothing short of remarkable." The IEA noted that the pace of growth was at a 30-month low in the second quarter and cut its 2014 and 2015 forecasts, blaming economic weakness in Europe and deceleration in China.
This matters for Russia because hydrocarbons made up 70.6 percent of exports last year and 50 percent of budget revenues. The government starts to worry about its ability to finance its obligations when the price of Urals oil drops below $100 per barrel. It is now at $96, dangerously close to the $93-to-$95 range needed to support Russia's budget plans for 2014 to 2016.
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