Russian President Vladimir Putin has officially agreed to leave Ukraine alone. That doesn't mean, though, that he will leave it alone unofficially.
Putin this week asked the Russian Parliament to cancel his mandate to send troops into Ukraine, which he had requested on March 1. That request led to the annexation of Crimea, and chilled relations between Russia and the West. It also had economic consequences, sending the ruble and Russian stocks tumbling and restricting Russia's access to global finance. Moscow's isolation created a $20 billion void in the global bond market, which was filled by issuers from other nations.
Putin's latest move, tantamount to a promise to refrain from military intervention, sent Russian stocks and bonds bounding up. Is it fair to assume, then, that the threat of wide-ranging sanctions against Russian companies worked? That Putin panicked and gave up his aggressive plans? That is certainly what Western politicians, including U.S. President Barack Obama, will now claim (while saying as little as they can about Crimea, which they have failed to prevent Russia from retaining). It will be true on some level, too; both Putin and Russia's Western business partners have signaled a desire to go back to business as usual, forgetting the annexation.
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