In the past year, I've visited Nigeria three times — more than I've traveled to any other country except the U.S. I mentioned this to an audience on my most recent trip, saying I wasn't sure what it meant: Am I a leading, coincident or lagging indicator? Maybe I was just there for the power outages — they shield me from the latest news about Manchester United. (Don't ask.)
Of course I aspire to be a leading indicator — and I'm hopeful Nigeria and much of the rest of Africa will demonstrate my farsightedness. It's hardly a sure thing, but Nigeria really does have the potential to be a spectacular economic success.
I laid out some reasons for this hope when I nominated the country as one of the "Next 11" emerging economies — countries with lots of people and untapped economic promise, capable of following the path cut by the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China). More recently, I've drawn particular attention to four of the 11, the MINT countries: Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey.
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