A rash of run-ins between China and rival claimants in disputed areas in the South China Sea has prompted a search for a conflict avoidance and management mechanism. In January 2012, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China will begin negotiating a Code of Conduct (CoC) to govern activities in the area and there are hopes that it will be prepared, presented and approved at the ASEAN-China 2012 summit.
There is a lot riding on the success of the venture: ASEAN centrality insecurity paradigms for the region, ASEAN solidarity, and the tone and tenor of ASEAN-China relations. It would also relieve some pressure on both China and ASEAN from the United States and diminish the opportunity for U.S.-China political conflict. Of course the proof of the pudding will be in its observance and"enforcement."
But first the parties have to negotiate a text that is both acceptable to all and effective as well — a rather tall order given the diversity of interests of the 10 ASEAN members (only four are claimants) and those of China.
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