Doubts are beginning to be heard about how sustainable is China's economic miracle, particularly the relentless emphasis on exports and investment spending by hundreds of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and local governments. Beijing, of course, has its supporters, including banker turned academic Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia as well as a faculty member of Yale University, who assert that China is different, bigger, special, the superpower that will defeat all the odds.
Fraser Howie is a leader of those who raise questions about China's economic miracle. He's an investment banker, too, and he has lived in China, speaks the language fluently, has a Chinese wife, and has written two books about important financial aspects of China's economy. If you want an antidote to China fever read "Red Capitalism: the fragile financial foundation of China's extraordinary rise," written with fellow investment banker Carl Walter.
In appearance, Howie looks some way south of the South Pole of a typical suited and booted investment banker, no sharp suit and tie, but a rather garish blue and purple casual shirt. His stubble of several days highlights his rapidly receding hairline, but, OK, he is off-duty today. His views are sharp and public-spirited in contrast to most bankers who keep their heads down and make money, unless they raise their heads above the parapet to praise their client state, as Roach has done several times.
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