CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — Now that the European Union and the International Monetary Fund have committed 67.5 billion euro to rescue Ireland's troubled banks, is the euro zone's debt crisis finally nearing a conclusion?
Unfortunately, no. In fact, we are probably only at the midpoint of the crisis. To be sure, a huge, sustained burst of growth could still cure all of Europe's debt problems — as it would anyone's. But that halcyon scenario looks increasingly improbable. The endgame is far more likely to entail a wave of debt writedowns, similar to the one that finally wound up the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s.
For starters, there are more bailouts to come, with Portugal at the top of the list. With an average growth rate of less than 1 percent over the past decade, and arguably the most sclerotic labor market in Europe, it is hard to see how Portugal can grow out of its massive debt burden.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.