There is little for Australian politicians to be proud of as they contemplate the results of last month's parliamentary elections. The vote was almost perfectly divided, resulting in the first hung Parliament since 1940. At this point, the two major parties are courting the four independents to see who can muster a majority. Yet even if a government is formed, it is likely to be unstable. Another election is likely to have to be held, yet even that may not resolve the deadlock. Prepare for muddle.
Australia went to the polls late last month after Prime Minister Julia Gillard called early elections in an attempt to seize the moment as her party enjoyed a brief surge in popularity. That was a mistake. Ms. Gillard had taken the prime minister's office after a backroom coup deposed her predecessor, Mr. Kevin Rudd. Mr. Rudd led Labor to power in November 2007 after 11 years in the opposition. He started off strong, but shifts on key policies — climate change and taxation on mineral exporters — pushed his popularity to dangerously low levels. Alarmed, party officials engineered his dismissal and replaced him with Ms. Gillard. While she enjoyed a brief honeymoon with voters, the backroom bloodletting proved more than most Australians could stomach. By the time they went to the polls, Labor's government looked short lived.
The ballot produced a virtual tie. Labor won 72 of the 150 seats in the Lower House, while the opposition Liberal National conservative coalition claimed 73. Of the remaining seats, one went to a Green party member, who is almost certain to join the Labor caucus. The remaining four parliamentarians are independent. One is a former Green party member whose inclinations would push him toward Labor. The other three were once members of the National party, but they have no love for their former allies and are likely to align with whichever party offers them the best deal.