SEOUL — North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's recent visit to China has further complicated South Korea's response to the probable culprit — North Korea — in the sinking of its warship, the Cheonan, on March 26. The debate about how to respond is complicated even more by the fact that the Cheonan's sinking does not seem to be a stand-alone event, but was, instead, part of a change in the general pattern of North Korean behavior. Indeed, North Korea has become increasingly bold and impetuous ever since Kim became ill (probably from a stroke) in August 2008.

In the past, top North Korean leaders tended to calculate carefully the costs and benefits when they acted to put pressure on the outside world. And they were inclined to play only one of their "threat" cards at a time. But in April and May 2009, they threw diplomatic caution to the wind, launching a long-range rocket (as well as various missiles) and conducting a second nuclear test — all in the space of several weeks.

As soon as the international community reacted, by adopting United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874, North Korea quickly shifted to a charm offensive aimed at the United States and South Korea. The authorities released two American journalists and a South Korean worker whom they had seized in August 2009 on charges of violating North Korean law.