The hearts of Asia-Pacific strategists are all aflutter. The desire of Japan's new government to "rebalance" its foreign policy between East and West and the subsequent tensions between Tokyo and Washington are seen as portents of a shift in the regional balance of power. Propelled by a global recession that is widely seen as "made in the USA," and the striking contrast of China's resilience and rising confidence, there is a growing sense that we are witnesses to the first stages of a fundamental transition in the way the world works. This is a compelling idea — but it is simplistic and the implications that many draw from the changes under way are way overdrawn. This is crude zero-sum thinking, and it doesn't capture the dynamics of contemporary Asia.

The case for change is straightforward. The Obama administration talks about a new commitment to Asia, but it is distracted by wars elsewhere and absorbed by bruising political fights at home. Its capacity for action is limited by rising debt and dependence on other nations whose interests often differ from those of the U.S. or who would like to see Washington humbled, if not humiliated, by foreign adversaries.

The chief beneficiary of these constraints is China, which is eager to pursue its place of prominence in Asia and whose economic dynamism has put it at the very heart of a newly integrated regional order. China's appeal is increasing — and when seduction doesn't work, Beijing has shown little compunction about playing hardball to get its way.