Is recovery from the global recession already under way? In Germany, France and the United States, authoritative voices are declaring the recession over and telling us that growth has resumed. And now the same view is heard in Japan. Yes, if you take a magnifying glass you can see tiny little specks of growth actually re-appearing here and there.

So what has happened to all those gloomy voices arguing that the recession would become a depression, that it would last for years and that a decade of Japan-style stagnation lay ahead?

The answer is that the voices are still there, only this time they are warning us about a "double dip," a "suckers rally" and other developments, all explaining why, despite the surge in stock markets round the world and the more cheerful news from both America and the Eurozone, there is another crunch just ahead. As usual the economists are in complete disagreement about what is happening or about to happen.