WASHINGTON — North Korea's motives for its April 5 rocket launch are open to speculation: a demonstration of its ability to reach out and touch the United States; test-marketing to Iranians who are reported to have observed the launch; a "remember me" welcome to the new Obama administration; or some combination of all of the above. Whatever the motive, it is important to set the rocket test in a broader North Korean political context — the process of political succession that is now under way in Pyongyang.
The rocket test speaks to the continuing political clout of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and strengthens his hand in ordering succession. It is in this context that the issue of denuclearization should be viewed. While the denuclearization of North Korea remains the raison d'etre of the six-party talks, realizing that objective will almost certainly have to await the arrival of Kim's successor. With succession looming, for Kim to trade his nuclear arsenal for diplomatic promises of good will would demonstrate a political naivete that would significantly weaken his hand in ordering succession.
In this context, the policy question is how to respond, to the rocket test and to threats to the six-party talks. The Goldilocks prescription, "not too cold; not too hot; just right" would stand U.S. and allied diplomacy in good order.
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