TUBINGEN, Germany — Many say the world financial crisis could not have been foreseen. Perhaps not by financiers and economists, but others who were watching how markets were developing — often with dismay — were more than worried.
As early as 1997, I warned of a repeat of the collapsed economic order of 1929-1933 in my book "A Global Ethic for Global Politics and Global Economics": "The slightest remark, for example by the president of the American Federal Bank, Alan Greenspan, at the beginning of December 1996, that an 'irrational exuberance' had led to an overvaluation of the financial markets was enough to drive nervous investors on the high-flying stock markets of Asia, Europe and America into a spin, and panic selling. This also shows that crises in globalization do not a priori balance out, but perhaps get progressively worse."
Back then, I was venturing what is, for economists, a heretical presumption: that chaos theory should be applied to the economy; that devastating effects can follow from the smallest causes. One could by no means rule out "a return of the world economic crisis . . . of 1929-1933."
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