A panel within a group of experts advising the government on social security has released an estimate of future medical and nursing-care costs based on four scenarios. The panel, established in January 2008 by then Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, states that if no reform improvements are carried out in medical and nursing-care services, the consumption tax needs to be raised by about 3 percentage points. If improvements are carried out, the tax would have to be raised by about 4 percentage points.
The estimate is just a starting point for discussing reform of those services and ways to raise necessary funds. Both the ruling and opposition forces should present their proposals, and then make them and other ideas, including this report, the subject of fruitful discussion.
The panel estimated the costs for 2025, when the graying of the population is expected to peak. Total costs for medical and nursing-care services in 2007 were about ¥41 trillion. If no reform improvements are carried out, they will reach about ¥85 trillion in 2025. If improvements are carried out, they will amount to between ¥91 trillion and ¥94 trillion.