For most countries, 9 percent growth is a reason to celebrate. In China, it sets alarm bells ringing. For a government whose legitimacy rests on its ability to deliver increasing prosperity to citizens, an economic downturn can have dramatic and dangerous repercussions. Moreover, China's slowing economy creates drag for other countries in the region at a time when they need a boost. As the vaunted Chinese export machine slows, so too will the economies that feed it.
Official statistics released last week show the Chinese economy grew just 9 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter of 2008, its slowest growth since 2003 when China was battered by the outbreak of SARS. The slowdown was not unexpected: Economists had anticipated that growth would dip below 10 percent. It has been slowing all year, recording 10.6 percent growth in the first quarter and 10.1 percent in the second. The shutdown in production to accommodate the Olympics also took a toll. Few anticipated a drop to this level, however.
While China has been relatively insulated from the subprime mortgage fiasco that triggered the financial meltdown in the West, it is still susceptible to recession in its overseas markets. The engine of the country's economy is still primarily its huge volume of exports. But consumers in the United State and Europe have cut back on spending as they cope with their own crises and the prospect of an economic slowdown at home. Chinese exports have plunged as a result; so much for all the speculation on "decoupling" Asia from the rest of the world.