Historians are likely to conclude that the war that broke out last weekend between Russia and Georgia was in many ways inevitable. The two governments have sparred over the appropriate deference Georgia should show toward its former Soviet overlord, with Moscow insisting that the small Caucasus republic is part of its sphere of influence while Tbilisi sought freedom under the umbrella of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The region of South Ossetia, which separated from Georgia shortly after it won its own independence at the end of the Cold War, merely provided the final fatal spark for war.
There is far more at stake here than the loyalties of small states in a volatile region, however. Events of the next few days and weeks could well chart the course for Russia's relations with the West for decades to come. Not only is Moscow's behavior under scrutiny, but so too is that of the U.S. and European capitals: How far will the West go to accommodate a country whose support is needed to deal with pressing international issues, such as Iran's nuclear ambitions?
Enmity has deep roots in the Russia-Georgia relationship. Russia formally annexed Georgia in 1801 and while independence was regained during the Russian Revolution, it was absorbed into the Soviet sphere of influence shortly after the Bolsheviks took power — a treaty with the Soviet government promising to respect Georgian independence notwithstanding. The country was quick to reassert its independence when the Soviet Union collapsed, but tensions with Moscow have been a mainstay of Georgian foreign policy ever since.