An expert panel of the government's Central Disaster Prevention Council recently projected that a major earthquake in the Kinki and Chubu region occurring at noon in winter would cause economic damage of ¥74 trillion and ¥33 trillion, respectively. Such an earthquake would shred heavily used traffic routes, including the Tomei and Meishin expressways and the Tokaido and Sanyo Shinkansen super-express train lines. The projected damage is less than the ¥106 trillion damage projected for a major quake in the Tokyo megalopolis, but as Ritsumeikan professor and panel head Mr. Kenzo Toki has pointed out, a major quake in the Chubu or in the Kinki region would disrupt traffic routes connecting eastern and western Japan, thus effectively dividing the nation.

The projection underlines a need to accelerate efforts to replace vulnerable structures with ones that are quake-resistant and reinforce primary traffic routes. Such efforts should also be made elsewhere as deemed necessary.

Major earthquakes in the Kinki or the Chubu region are related to Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes, which are predicted to occur in the first half of this century off the coast of Shikoku or the Kii Peninsula of Wakayama Prefecture. It is predicted that Kinki or Chubu quakes will occur several times within a span of about 60 years, and that a Nankai and/or Tonankai earthquake will also take place in this time frame.