OXFORD, England — Turkey has long been a haven of geopolitical stability. But since 2003, Turkey's virtually unquestioned alliance with the United States has undergone a profound re-evaluation due to the Iraq War. The Turkish consensus on its decades-long EU candidacy has begun to wobble, owing to EU dithering.
Given Turkey's central role not only in maintaining peace in the volatile Caucasus region but also in promoting peace in the Middle East — the talks now under way between Syria and Israel are, after all, being conducted with Turkish mediation — neglecting Turkey is not only foolish, it is dangerous.
Both the dominant Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its secular rivals remain publicly committed to pursuing EU membership, but in practice doubts have emerged. French President Nicolas Sarkozy's insistence that a referendum should be held on Turkey's admission suggests that years of painful adjustment to EU norms will never produce the payoff of membership.