JAKARTA — I believe regional and global economic integration and increasing openness, mobility and democratization are shaping East Asian developments the most — not nationalisms or Sino-Japanese tensions, or the uncertainties of China's rise, or growing conventional armaments, however important. We are at the brink of a positive decade in great-power relations in East Asia if domestic politics do not foul it up — a big if.
Neither China, Japan nor the United States is in an expansive mood. China's rapid growth has brought it clout and a new world role. China has made another leadership transition, but its leaders remain preoccupied with internal growth, mitigating the massive distortions of growth, making the Olympics successful, and preventing regime change. That inward focus has been a stabilizing influence in the region and kept in check fears of Chinese imperialism. China also recognizes its dependence on outside inputs to sustain this growth. Its military modernization arouses American angst and some regional hedging.
China's international engagement — no longer solely on an Asian platform — is growing but difficult, because China remains opaque and out of step with the political morality of leading countries. China has a way to go in exercising international leadership.
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