LONDON — More than two years ago, when Kenya's current opposition leader, Raila Odinga, quit President Mwai Kibaki's government, I wrote the following: "The trick will be to get Kibaki out without triggering a wave of violence that would do the country grave and permanent damage. . . . Bad times are coming to Kenya."
The bad times have arrived, but the violence that has swept Kenya since the stolen election Dec. 27 is not just African "tribalism." Kikuyus have been the main target of popular wrath and non-Kikuyu protesters have been the principal victims of the security forces, but this confrontation is about trust betrayed, hopes dashed, and patience strained to the breaking point.
Nobody wants a civil war in Kenya, but it's easy to see why Raila Odinga rejects calls from abroad to accept the figures for the national vote that were announced last Dec. 30. If Odinga enters a "government of national unity" under Kibaki, as the African Union and the United States want, then he's back in the untenable situation that he was in until 2005, and Kibaki will run Kenya for another five years.