The United States has just concluded the first stage in the quadrennial spectacular — or is it a spectacle? — that is a presidential campaign. The Iowa caucuses were held Thursday evening and the two winners, Sen. Barack Obama and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, confounded their party establishments with surprise victories.
In both cases, the message from voters was clear: They want change. The big question now is whether Iowa voters are typical: Do they reflect the mood of the nation?
The Iowa caucuses are a genuinely democratic event. They are like town meetings. Tens and sometimes hundreds of people get together in homes and public places across the state to endorse candidates. Republicans gather in preference groups by candidate; once they are counted, they leave. Democrats sort themselves out and then, if a candidate does not pass a threshold of support, they can shift to a candidate who does. (This second step leads to alliances that can tip results.)