Fears about the future of Venezuela's democracy have abated, at least for now. Despite pre-vote threats about the potential cost of opposing his wishes, President Hugo Chavez has accepted the defeat of his constitutional reform package. The outcome has the potential to rejuvenate a dispirited and divided opposition. But Mr. Chavez retains his tight grip on virtually all levers of power in Venezuela and has outfoxed his opponents at virtually every turn.
Mr. Chavez thrives on conflict. Since winning national elections in 1998, he has waged war against Venezuela's established power centers, exploiting divisions among the opposition while uniting the poor and disaffected under his plan to build socialism for the 21st century. He has moved to nationalize key parts of the country's economy, demanded better terms for foreign investment in Venezuela, and established himself as a leader, along with Cuba's Mr. Fidel Castro, of global opposition to the United States. His international influence has been magnified by Venezuela's growing oil revenues, estimated at some $60 billion a year.
Mr. Chavez has slowly consolidated power. When the opposition boycotted parliamentary elections in 2005, the National Assembly was filled with the president's loyal supporters. They granted him emergency powers that extended his influence over other branches of government, such as the courts and election authorities, and granted him authority to legislate by fiat. Apparently, that was not enough for him and Mr. Chavez pushed a constitutional reform package that promised him even more power. Key features included new types of communal property as well as permission for the president to personally select leaders under a new political map and to suspend civil liberties during extended states of emergency. Perhaps the most troubling clause ended term limits for the president. Currently, Mr. Chavez must step down in 2012; the proposed constitution would have let him rule indefinitely.