LONDON — The imposition by the United States of sanctions against Iranian banks and the revolutionary guards, combined with discussion about the "big blue" bomb, has led to an increase in tension in the Middle East, a rise in the oil price and fears that the U.S. is preparing an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities either by Israel with U.S. connivance or by U.S. forces perhaps in conjunction with Israel.

The fears have been heightened by the determination of U.S. President George W Bush to claim supreme powers because of the "war on terror." He does not have to seek the endorsement of American voters and may believe that he can "deal with" the Iranian threat before his term ends enabling him to claim a success for his presidency.

With the situation in Iraq appearing, temporarily at least, to be stabilizing as a result of the "surge," the resources for an attack on Iran may be found rather more easily than had previously been thought likely.